Following an interesting conversation I had recently, About Covid deaths. I came to realize, that while many people talk about the death numbers of covid. No actual data has been presented to me, regarding the statistical differences between 2020 and previous years. This kind if data seems to me quite relevant. As it can put a lot of our assumptions in perspective.
We are expose to different numbers on a big scale. It seems to me, that putting those numbers in relation to past data or sizing it correctly, could give us a lot of clarity. In this series of posts, i will research and show different data points related the the numbers published in the Covid propaganda era. Hopefully, it will give me (and hopefully to you too), a better understanding of what we are dealing with.
disclaimer; i will try to show the data without any prejudice. Please remember, as any other human, I have my basic assumption. I will try to avoid them and not give any personal conclusion about the number and the data. I will prefer to let you decide for yourself.
for this post we will address the following question – Did more people died in Italy in 2020? If the answer is positive, is it an proportional spike in the data or part of a trend? what are the demographic of the death compared to the population?
we will start with information taken from knomea.com ;
Alternative graph, from indexmundi.com;
The last one is from worldbank.com:
Summery of the 3 graphs: In all the graph we can notice that the total death is in an up trend from at least 2004. The total amount of death people in Italy in 2019 indicated by all graphs average 637,080 (with the highest at 641,640 and lowest at 630,000). This number represent a total of 1.06% of the total population. (Total population in italy in 2019 is 60,365,035)
Based on the number published on worldometer.info (official covid death count), in 2020 a total of 74,609 death cases has been reported related to covid. The current death count states that the total covid related death (1 January 2020 – 4 August 2021) is 128,136. ISTAT has published in the 1st of January that the total death in Italy for 2020 is 746,000. Meaning a total increase of of 17% compared to 2019 (total extra death 109,136). Bringing the annual death compared to total population to 1.23%.
Based on an ISTAT report published the published in March 5th 2021. A total of 76.3% of the excess death are related to the population aged 80+, with a total of 486,255. ( 65% pf all death in 2020). Another 20% is attributed to the population between 65-79, with a total 184,708. ( 25% of total death). From the other side, the report shows that total death for ages 0-49 diminished in almost 9%.
in comparison to general demographics, taken from statista.com. The average life of a male in Italy is 81, while woman have an average of 86. Italy have a total population of 7,101,783 aged 80+ and a total of 6,745,171 aged 65-74. based on this calculation, the % of death in 2020 for the 80+ compared to their total population is 6.8%. for the 65+ it is 2.7%. as for the rest of the population (0-64), the % of death is 0.001%.
Conclusion: While a general up trend in the death cases can be observed in recent years, 2020 had an un-proportional spike statistically. It seems that the majority of the death (90% of total death), has been concentrated in the 65+ population, with a higher concentration in the 80+ group (72.5% of all death in the 65+ age group), the 50-64 group seems not have a small change to the negative (-1.4%), while the 0-49 age group had a drastic change to the negative (9%). While the rate of change compared to previous year show an anomaly in the spike, it is important to remember that a total of no more than 1.23% of the population of Italy died in 2020.
It is interesting to notice, that while a spike of more than 100,000 death has been recorded in 2020, only 74,609 cases has been associated to covid. Taking in consideration that the mortality of 0-59 has dropped significantly, it can be assumed that around 50,000 additional death accrue in 2020 unrelated to covid. Due to the average age expectancy in Italy and the demographic in 2019. Would it not be reasonable to assume that a spike of death in the 80+ could be seen as a begging of a new trend regardless of covid?
Are you tired of being afraid and angry? Did you found this post helpful? Please share with me your opinion. Help the people next to you, by sharing this post with them.
Awareness and open conversation are the key for the creation of a better world.